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China continues run of double-digit growth
By Richard McGregor in Beijing
Published: January 24 2008 02:38 | Last updated: January 24 2008 05:46
China’s economy grew by 11.4 per cent in 2007, the highest pace in 13 years, but the trend of decelerating exports to a slowing US recorded in the final two quarters is expected to be carried into moderating growth this year.
China’s economy has now grown at double-digit rates for five straight years, an achievement hailed by the government as a “hard won gain” of difficult policy decisions.
“I think that when we look back 10 years from now, we’ll see that we’ve really had some hard-won and precious achievements,” Xie Fuzhan, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, told reporters on Thursday.
“Average growth over the last five years has been 10.6 percent. That’s really extraordinary. The ups and downs each year have also been limited [to a difference of one per cent a year]. That’s also extraordinary.”
New data released on Thursday showed the December quarter recorded growth of 11.2 per cent, compared to the first three quarters of 11.1 per cent, 11.9 per cent and 11.5 per cent.
Inflation in December fell to 6.5 per cent from 6.9 per cent in November, but the fall was mainly due to base effects, according to China economists. Annual inflation was 4.8 per cent, compared to 1.6 per cent in 2006.
Mr Xie said he was confident that a recent decision by the State Council, or Cabinet, to monitor excessive price rises for “daily necessities” would begin to have a significant moderating impact on inflation.
He said the measures to control prices would attack the basis of the inflation problem and he was confident they would be effective.
“Prices will face big pressures to rise this year. Even if there’s no price hikes, the effect of rises in 2007 will have a big impact on prices this year,” he said.
The depth of any US recession remains a concern for Chinese policymakers and will play a key role in determining whether Beijing begins to ease its own tightening measures later this year.
The US slowdown is already showing up in decelerating exports, but Mr Xie said there was no consensus among policymakers about the full impact of an American slowdown.
With Beijing wanting to moderate growth at home, and also wind back the politically contentious trade surplus, Mr Xie indicated that a slighter rate of Chinese GDP growth would be welcome.
“If economic growth sees a mild slowdown, that would be within our expectations,” he said. “I’m positive about China’s economic growth this year. I think it will still be able to maintain stable but rapid growth.”
The engine of Chinese GDP growth in 2007 remained the same as that of the past five years, investment.
